How to Tell If You’re Caught in the Dunning-Kruger Trap

(and why we all are, sometimes)

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?

“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt” (Bertrand Russell)

We like to imagine stupidity as something that happens to other people – the loud ones, the red-faced pub ranters, the ones convinced that climate change is a hoax and that immigrants are personally responsible for NHS waiting times. But the uncomfortable truth is that the Dunning–Kruger effect isn’t a political problem or a class problem. It’s a human one.

It’s what happens when confidence outpaces competence – when ignorance dresses up as certainty and decides expertise is just elitism by another name. And, inconveniently, we’re all prone to it. Every last one of us.

Signs you might be stuck in the trap

“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” (Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man, 1871)

The trap is simple: the less you know about a subject, the less aware you are of what you don’t know. The gaps in your understanding are invisible from the inside, so you feel informed, even expert. Meanwhile, genuine expertise often breeds caution and hesitation, because the more you learn, the more complexity you see. Knowledge expands your horizon; ignorance shrinks it until you think you’ve reached the edge of the world.

So how do you spot when you’ve wandered into Dunning–Kruger territory yourself?

Start with the inner monologue. When you find yourself absolutely certain about something you’ve never studied, never tested, and never risked being wrong about – pause and reflect. Because that’s the faint hum of Dunning–Kruger in the wiring.

Then listen for reinforcement. Are you seeking information that challenges you, or just nods in your direction? Do you read people who know more than you, or only those who confirm that you’re already right? Certainty without challenge isn’t wisdom. It’s insulation.

How to escape the trap

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” (Mark Twain)

There are a few ways out of the trap, though none especially comfortable:

– Seek friction. Talk to people who disagree intelligently. It’s the intellectual equivalent of stretching.

– Read and study. Stay curious. Because curiosity and humility share a root system. Starve one and the other dies.

– Revisit your opinions. If something you said a year ago doesn’t embarrass you at least a little, you probably haven’t learned much since.

Why it matters in today’s world

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd” (Voltaire)

Most of us oscillate between knowing too little and thinking we know too much. It’s the human condition. But the moment we start to believe we’re immune – that the fools are always someone else – we’ve ourselves fallen into the trap.

And of course, even humility has its own vanity. We can end up boasting about our doubt, congratulating ourselves for being sceptical while quietly admiring the reflection. Uncertainty isn’t the destination – it’s the method. The moment we worship it, we’ve stopped practising it.

Humility isn’t weakness. It’s intellectual hygiene – the daily hand-washing of the mind.

“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance” (Confucius)

Not knowing – and being at peace with it

Authors note:

Originally published on NoSacredCows.blog – where certainty goes to die.

Expat Exodus? Not So Fast…

Back in 2008 – well before Brexit, Trumpism, and the subsequent parade of geopolitical absurdities – the British press was already having a mild panic about the supposed “collapse” of the expat dream. The pound had taken a tumble against the euro, the property bubble was deflating, and journalists were circling like vultures over the lavender fields of Provence and the golf courses of Andalucía.

Tabloids and broadsheets alike ran lurid stories of “broke Brits fleeing France and Spain in droves,” driven back to Blighty by collapsing exchange rates, failed gîte ventures, and sterling-linked mortgages gone sour. The underlying tone was unmistakable: serves them right for getting ideas above their station.

Nothing new under the Sun…

But was there really an exodus? Or just the usual attrition – a few dreamers heading home, chastened, while the more resilient quietly carried on?

The truth, as ever, was less dramatic. The global financial crisis had rattled everyone, and many small-scale British ventures in rural France were vulnerable. But for most long-term residents – myself included – it wasn’t the end of anything. We tightened belts, mended roofs, took on extra work, or simply adjusted our expectations. The ones who left had often come chasing a fantasy. Those who stayed had usually come looking for something more substantial: sanity.

I remember a call from Bill Coles, an Old Etonian tabloid hack writing for the Daily Express, who was doing a piece on this supposed “mass migration back to the UK”. I tried to inject a little balance: yes, some expats were struggling – but a stampede home? Hardly. Unsurprisingly, none of that nuance made it into print. The Express had already written its conclusion before the phone rang. The story needed villains and victims, not perspective.

In truth, most of us hadn’t come for the cheaper wine or larger gardens. We’d left Britain because something fundamental had begun to feel unliveable: the pace, the noise, the corrosive work culture, the unrelenting worship of growth. France, for all its bureaucracy and provincial quirks, still offered a sense that life outside work mattered. There was a slower rhythm, a stronger attachment to family and community, and an enduring respect for the art of simply being – qualities that Britain, by the early 2000s, seemed to have sold off along with its railways.

That said, even France was shifting. By 2008, the cracks were visible: rising costs, eroding public services, and rural depopulation beginning to hollow out the villages. Still, compared with the UK’s tabloid-fuelled hysteria and market-driven politics, it felt civilised – human, even.

When I later began dividing my time between France and Thailand, the contrasts sharpened further. Thailand, for all its contradictions, possessed something I’d long stopped seeing in Western societies: composure. A certain patience with life’s imperfections. A detachment from the frantic, performative misery that had infected much of the West. Thailand wasn’t paradise – far from it – but it offered perspective. It reminded me that comfort and contentment aren’t the same thing, and that dignity can exist without affluence.

So was there an exodus back around 2008? Perhaps – of those who’d come seeking an idyll, or who’d mistaken the dream for the work required to sustain it. But for many of us, the balance sheet still came out in favour of staying. The gains – time, peace, perspective – outweighed the losses.

We hadn’t emigrated for the weather, the rosé, or the romance of rural life. We’d come to breathe more slowly, to feel a little more human. And however turbulent the world became – from sub-prime crashes to Brexit psychodramas – that still seemed a bargain worth keeping. 

As for returning to Britain in 2025 – where neo-fascists lead the polls and history is being rewritten in real time – you’d have to manacle me to the rear end of the Eurostar and drag me through the Channel Tunnel backwards. And even then, I’d be kicking, screaming, and plotting my escape the moment we surfaced in Kent.

The Art of Meandering: Reflections on Life and Scepticism

Welcome! Or at least: you’ve clicked.

This blog doesn’t promise answers. It doesn’t promise recipes, travel hacks, or 10 ways to boost your productivity using only yoghurt and positive thinking. It certainly doesn’t promise consistency. What it does offer is a kind of meander through memory, place, and thought – sometimes personal, sometimes political, occasionally photo-heavy, and often coloured by scepticism and a nagging sense of impending global collapse.

Doubt may be an uncomfortable state. But certainty is ridiculous.

Voltaire