How to Tell If You’re Caught in the Dunning-Kruger Trap

(and why we all are, sometimes)

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?

“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt” (Bertrand Russell)

We like to imagine stupidity as something that happens to other people – the loud ones, the red-faced pub ranters, the ones convinced that climate change is a hoax and that immigrants are personally responsible for NHS waiting times. But the uncomfortable truth is that the Dunning–Kruger effect isn’t a political problem or a class problem. It’s a human one.

It’s what happens when confidence outpaces competence – when ignorance dresses up as certainty and decides expertise is just elitism by another name. And, inconveniently, we’re all prone to it. Every last one of us.

Signs you might be stuck in the trap

“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” (Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man, 1871)

The trap is simple: the less you know about a subject, the less aware you are of what you don’t know. The gaps in your understanding are invisible from the inside, so you feel informed, even expert. Meanwhile, genuine expertise often breeds caution and hesitation, because the more you learn, the more complexity you see. Knowledge expands your horizon; ignorance shrinks it until you think you’ve reached the edge of the world.

So how do you spot when you’ve wandered into Dunning–Kruger territory yourself?

Start with the inner monologue. When you find yourself absolutely certain about something you’ve never studied, never tested, and never risked being wrong about – pause and reflect. Because that’s the faint hum of Dunning–Kruger in the wiring.

Then listen for reinforcement. Are you seeking information that challenges you, or just nods in your direction? Do you read people who know more than you, or only those who confirm that you’re already right? Certainty without challenge isn’t wisdom. It’s insulation.

How to escape the trap

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” (Mark Twain)

There are a few ways out of the trap, though none especially comfortable:

– Seek friction. Talk to people who disagree intelligently. It’s the intellectual equivalent of stretching.

– Read and study. Stay curious. Because curiosity and humility share a root system. Starve one and the other dies.

– Revisit your opinions. If something you said a year ago doesn’t embarrass you at least a little, you probably haven’t learned much since.

Why it matters in today’s world

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd” (Voltaire)

Most of us oscillate between knowing too little and thinking we know too much. It’s the human condition. But the moment we start to believe we’re immune – that the fools are always someone else – we’ve ourselves fallen into the trap.

And of course, even humility has its own vanity. We can end up boasting about our doubt, congratulating ourselves for being sceptical while quietly admiring the reflection. Uncertainty isn’t the destination – it’s the method. The moment we worship it, we’ve stopped practising it.

Humility isn’t weakness. It’s intellectual hygiene – the daily hand-washing of the mind.

“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance” (Confucius)

Not knowing – and being at peace with it

Authors note:

Originally published on NoSacredCows.blog – where certainty goes to die.

Machines, Mirrors, and the Question of Self

I’ve long wondered whether human beings are anything more than elaborate, error-prone information processors – complex, yes, but not fundamentally different from other life forms. As artificial intelligence moves from science fiction to daily reality, the question seems less about our limitations than about our supposed uniqueness.

People often insist that AI will never replace humans in areas requiring subtlety or empathy – diplomacy, for instance, with its unspoken codes, glances, and emotional intelligence. But why not? With enough data and processing power, a machine could conceivably simulate those same nuances. If our instincts are simply fast-processed experience – rapid recognitions shaped by evolution – there’s no reason in principle that a machine couldn’t do the same, only faster.

Still, reading emotion, sharing it, and being moved to act on it are not the same. A system may interpret feelings flawlessly yet remain unmoved by them. Empathy involves motivation as well as perception.

Perhaps what we call “intuition” is a form of data compression: experience, pattern, reaction. We’re biological pattern-recognition systems built on feedback loops and fuzzy logic, prone to error but good at improvising coherence. Yet much of that intuition depends on embodiment – hormones, sensations, and habits grounded in a physical world. Machines might reproduce the structure of intuition, but not necessarily its texture. Even so, if intuition is mostly compression, the idea that AI could surpass us – not only in speed but in subtlety – becomes difficult to dismiss.

The deeper question is self-awareness. Can a machine ever be truly conscious? Most say no – that machines can simulate understanding but never experience it. Yet human consciousness itself evolved gradually, not as a divine spark. If certain forms of intelligence and embodiment can support self-awareness, then perhaps it isn’t beyond reach for silicon. Whether functional equivalence alone can generate experience remains unresolved, but it is at least plausible.

We like to believe we’re uniquely self-aware, but perhaps, as Stephen Hawking warned, the greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge. Nowhere is that illusion stronger than in our belief that we are the pinnacle of awareness – that our consciousness is both unique and central.

Douglas Adams captured that delusion beautifully in his tale of the sentient puddle. One morning it wakes, marvelling at how perfectly the hole fits its shape. Naturally, it concludes that the world was made just for it. But the puddle is wrong. The hole wasn’t made for it; the puddle simply conforms to its container. We are that puddle. We fit the world not because it was designed for us, but because we have adapted ourselves to it – and then mistaken that fit for specialness. The same bias colours how we build machines: we design them in our image, then take the resemblance as proof of our own centrality.

Perhaps consciousness is not a revelation but a trick – a sleight of mind that lets a limited brain cope with an overwhelming world. A coping mechanism disguised as profundity. If so, AI might one day match or exceed our self-reflection – not by copying us exactly, but by evolving something functionally equivalent, perhaps even superior. To do that, though, machines may need grounding in the real world: bodies, sensors, or other means of shared reference that give meaning to their models rather than mere simulation.

And if certain forms of intelligence can support self-awareness, the future may belong to machines – not necessarily as rivals, but as successors. Yet there is also a middle path: not successors, but partners and hybrids. The frontier may lie in shared cognition rather than replacement, in symbiotic systems that blend biological and artificial minds.

That need not be a tragedy. It could mark the next step, not of biological evolution, but of cognitive and perhaps moral evolution. Cooperation, after all, was never uniquely human; it was an evolutionary advantage. Among intelligent machines, survival might favour those who collaborate – those who find value in coexistence. But cooperation is fragile. It depends on trust, incentives, and governance. Machines, like humans, would need structures of accountability to make it endure.

If so, the rise of machine intelligence may not spell our extinction, but offer continuity – a passing of the torch, not to something that mirrors us perfectly, but to something that inherits our insights. And if such systems ever cross the threshold into true experience, we’ll face another question: what, if anything, do we owe them?

If we are wise – and that remains uncertain – we may yet learn to live alongside these new minds. The question is not whether they become like us, but whether we can accept no longer being central.

“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom”

Isaac Asimov

The Art of Meandering: Reflections on Life and Scepticism

Welcome! Or at least: you’ve clicked.

This blog doesn’t promise answers. It doesn’t promise recipes, travel hacks, or 10 ways to boost your productivity using only yoghurt and positive thinking. It certainly doesn’t promise consistency. What it does offer is a kind of meander through memory, place, and thought – sometimes personal, sometimes political, occasionally photo-heavy, and often coloured by scepticism and a nagging sense of impending global collapse.

Doubt may be an uncomfortable state. But certainty is ridiculous.

Voltaire